Rebel forces use armed conflict to challenge established governments and attempt to establish or maintain a stable breakaway state. A polity is considered a rebel force when it controls territory that would be part of an established government or states in a normal state of affairs but that is currently under armed control by the force.
The most prominent rebel group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS is a complex coalition of insurgent factions that has evolved and transformed repeatedly since the start of the Syrian civil war. The US and many other nations have long designated HTS a terrorist organization; it was previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate.
HTS’s rapid offensive has thrown the country into chaos, with many civilians fleeing advancing militancy. The influx of refugees has further pressured already stretched humanitarian agencies. Meanwhile, the military advance poses a threat to the survival of the government and the political system in place under President Bashar al-Assad.
A key question for rebels is whether they can build an effective military organization capable of defeating Assad’s army and his allies. If such a group emerges, it could provide a viable alternative to Assad and offer hope for the future. But it will likely clash with the interests of Turkey, a key regional power that supports the opposition, and Russia, which is determined to save Assad’s regime. It will also create a conflict of interest between the United States, which is supporting rebels in Syria and Lebanon, and Israel, which is defending its interests in the region.
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