Insurgency group consists of an activist minority that aims to overthrow government and replace it with a revolutionary one. While armed violence is the main instrument, insurgents use a wide range of other means to accomplish their goal. They spread rumors to discredit the government and its supporters, inflame existing or create new social conflicts between racial, ethnic, or religious groups, play political intrigue or manipulate class or regional interests, and inflict economic disruptions to deprive the state of its support base.
In urban environments, insurgents establish a form of rebel governance that binds armed actors and their constituencies to a normative order, cemented by forms of social mobilisation (Kasfir et al., 2022). They may control areas that are complex or even overlapping or complementary in nature, or engage in hybrid forms of domination over parts of a population (Malthaner & Malesevic, 2022).
The success of an insurgency depends on the balance between the ability to achieve military and political goals and the resources available. Insurgencies in strong democracies succeed by prioritizing terrorist campaigns, whereas those in weak autocracies achieve their objectives through guerrilla warfare. Moreover, those insurgencies that are supported by foreign powers are more likely to prioritize the former approach.
The past is not a perfect guide to the future, but the study of insurgency is an invaluable source of insights for states and their security and intelligence services. They must think about what the next-generation insurgency might look like rather than what it has been and prepare accordingly.
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